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Warning: Income investment trusts trading at a premium

The price of income investment trusts have risen to trade at a premium

Few of us worry when our shares go up. But with income investment trusts trading at a premium, do remember that what goes up can easily come down.

This is especially the case with investment trust premiums and discounts. Because they reflect investor appetite, they can be reversed even more quickly than the usual rises and falls in the stock market.

Everyone loves a good discount

A couple of years ago you could buy income investment trusts at a 10% or more discount to their net assets.

In other words, for every 90p you spent, you effectively bought £1 of the trust’s underlying investments.

Such a discount is great if you’re buying income, since a trust’s income is generated by its underlying investments. All things being equal, a 10% discount means roughly a 10% higher income for you.

Indeed, as I wrote back in the glorious days of summer 2008, since most income investment trusts hold blue chip dividend paying shares, if you owned a portfolio of such shares, it made sense to swap them for an income trust going cheap.

As well as getting the discount, by swapping for the trust you probably got extra diversification, too, and the benefit of the trust’s income reserve, which smooths out the income payments in poor years.

The downside, apart from trading fees, was taking on the trust’s annual charge, and also some management risk.

Investment trusts, going cheap expensive!

Two years on, this pleasant situation has reversed. Popular income investment trust now trade at a premium 1:

  • Edinburgh – 5.7% premium
  • Merchants – 4.6% premium
  • City of London – 3.4% premium

When you pay a premium for an investment trust, the bargains have vanished. In the case of Edinburgh, you’re paying £1.05 for £1 of its underlying assets.

I’ve written before about the reasons why investment trusts trade at a premium. In the case of income trusts, I am pretty sure it is due to fashion, in that people sick of poor returns from cash or bonds have been buying the trusts for income.

Nothing wrong with that, but it’s important to realize the premium is not due to the underlying income paying shares doing especially well in recent months, nor a reflection of rising faith in manager’s skill.

For instance:

  • The Edinburgh Trust had a NAV 2 of 390p on January 4th 2010. As of December 24th it had increased to 438.5p, an increase of 12.4%.
  • Over this period, the shares rose from 381.5p to 460p, an increase of 24%.

As you can see, the share price performance of the Edinburgh Trust has been much stronger than the growth of its investments! As a result, the trust has moved from a discount to a premium.

You can see this divergence in its performance graph on the Trustnet website:

(Click to enlarge)

At the start of 2010, the share price and the NAV are all rebased to zero. Looking at the blue line, we can see how the share price has increased faster than the NAV (the yellow line).

The red line shows the average performance of trusts in the growth and income sector. As you can see, Edinburgh’s performance is smack in line with the sector average, so it seems very unlikely that the trust is being bid up in value because investors expect it to outperform.

Rather, I think it’s very likely that investors looking for equity income have been drawn to the trust by its (historically excellent) fund manager Neil Woodford, and have bought in regardless of the NAV.

What should you do if you hold such an investment trust?

Just because you hold a trust trading at a premium doesn’t mean you need to do anything about it. It all depends on why you bought the trust, and what kind of investor you are.

You invested for long-term income…

If you bought the trust for income, you will be happy to hold. Trading in and out of investment trusts can be expensive. The premium doesn’t effect the trust’s ability to pay dividends (if anything it enhances it by enabling it to issue new shares on good terms) and if you were happy with an initial 5% yield, say, nothing has changed.

Also, premiums are not unusual for income investment trusts, perhaps due to their historically steady performance. If you only hold them when they’re on discounts, you might not hold them much at all.

Just keep in mind that the premium could dissipate as quickly as it came (reducing the capital value of your shares) should investors get nervous.

You bought for discounted income, but you usually own shares…

If you’re a confident and practiced investor in individual company shares, you may see an opportunity to swap the trust for a high yield portfolio.

The two largest holdings of the Edinburgh Trust are the big drug makers AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline, which offer a yield of 5.2% and 4.8% respectively. The yield on the trust is 4.5%.

Do you want to pay Neil Woodford a premium (and an annual fee) to buy blue chip shares like these? Perhaps not, but remember if you do it yourself you’ll need to diversify your high yield portfolio and take on more risk by running your own money.

You don’t own an income investment trust, but would like to…

Tricky. If you buy a trust when it’s trading at a premium, you have to accept you’re paying over the odds.

That doesn’t mean your shares will inevitably fall in value. It may be that the share price just increases more slowly in future than the underlying NAV, thus reducing the premium.

Also, if we are into a true bull market, then yields are only going to fall in the years ahead. You could be waiting for some time to buy on a discount, and the yields on offer from trusts are still pretty good in historical terms.

Personally, I’d rather buy high yield shares directly with the trusts trading at a premium, but that’s not an appropriate choice for most investors.

You’re an active share trader…

Finally, if you bought specifically for the discount, as a trading opportunity, you might want to consider selling up and swapping into growth-focused investment trusts that may offer better value.

Big growth trusts such as British Empire and General, Hansa, and the Mercantile Trust are still trading on reasonable discounts. Others, such as the Rothchild’s RIT Capital Partners, are no longer a bargain, but have historically done very well in bull markets and offer great diversification.

Bottom line: The varying discounts and premiums on investment trusts are an extra opportunity thrown up by Mr Market to do with as you will.

It’s one thing that makes buying investment trusts more complicated and risky than an index tracker, but also more interesting (for good or ill) to devotees.

  1. Note that there are various ways to calculate the discount and premium. My figures come from Digital Look, which seemingly takes the toughest line, which is to use the investment trusts NAV with all its assets rated at marked-to-market values. But this was the same methodology I used back in late 2008 when we saw big discounts on the same trusts.[]
  2. Valued cum income[]
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The best of the Wealth Pilgrim blog

Neal Frankle is the Wealth Pilgrim

A blogging friend of mine, Neal Frankle, has had some extreme technical issues with his Wealth Pilgrim blog over Christmas. As a result, his posts have lost their shine in the eyes of mighty Google.

Given how hard it is to buy presents, survive Christmas ‘fare’, navigate choppy family waters, and to still keep blogging over the holiday period, even without your website falling over, my heart goes out to him.

Plus Neal is a fellow member of the Money Mavens network. This means he is a keeper of one of the eight ingredients of the antidote to the poison consumed by all Mavens. If I don’t answer his call when he beams the MM logo onto the side of his nearest Wal-Mart, all my toes could shrivel up and fall off.

Bottom line – it gives me great pleasure to plug ten of Neal’s favourite posts, both for those of you fed up with Christmas TV, and to give the mighty Google a reboot up the backside.

[continue reading…]

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Weekend reading: Christmas crackers

Weekend reading

Ten money and investing books I read (or re-read) in 2010, followed by the best of the Web.

When I was growing up, bank runs, financial meltdowns, and deep recessions were something you read about in old library books.

More recently, we’ve read (and written) about them as they’ve happened!

On that note, here are ten canapes-sized reviews of relevant books I read in 2010 (with Amazon UK links) that are worth adding to your Christmas stocking, especially if Santa has just given you socks again:

The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine
Michael Lewis’ tale is biased and simplified to glorify the hedge fund mavericks who bet against the US housing bubble, but it’s gripping and funny stuff.

Fool’s Gold: How Unrestrained Greed Corrupted a Dream
Former FT journalist Gillian Tett is strong on the relatively respectable origins of the structured products that blew up in the US sub-prime crisis.

Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies
A couple of years old now, but my Peak Oil pals tell me it’s still the best book to read on what I’ve started calling the ‘energy deleveraging’ to come.

More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the New Elite
Superbly readable history of the hedge fund industry and its leading lights. Barely touches on survivorship bias – but does show how different funds that find market inefficiencies can get superior returns for years.

The Warren Buffetts Next Door: The Greatest Investors You’ve Never Heard of
Ten profiles of the private investor equivalents of the hedgies in More Money Than God. Porn for share traders (but don’t tell The Accumulator you read it!)

The Zulu Principle: Making Extraordinary Profits from Ordinary Shares
The old but classic book for investors in British growth shares. Author Jim Slater’s son is the top fund manager of 2010 through following his dad’s principles (which could be a contrary indicator for 2011, of course).

How to Get Rich
Another oldie, I re-read Felix Dennis’ incomparably frank guide to being loaded after lending it to a friend who later said it changed his life. Persuaded me I don’t care enough about money to be filthy rich, but it’s still an eye-opening read.

Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment
This one is from 2005! Another re-read, I dusted down my copy after again buying one for a (different) friend and getting drawn in. Dry but persuasive stuff on passive investing from the brainy Ivy League fund manager.

How to Make Money Trading
Bought on a whim after watching the dull-as-dishwater Million Dollar Traders on BBC2 that it’s tied with. Contains nothing that will stop you thinking winning at short-term trading isn’t just luck. Good to know the enemy, but read the Buffett bio The Snowball if you’ve only got time for one active investor.

The Road
Not a financial book, but Cormac McCarthy’s post-apocalyptic classic makes you realise just how rich most of us Westerners are. Devour it before you die.

Merry Christmas and a happy new year!

Right, I’m staying with my extended family in the countryside this Christmas – and I’m on turkey cooking duty – so I’ll just end by thanking you for reading Monevator in 2010, and wishing you a happy Christmas.

[continue reading…]

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Weekend reading: Inflating inflation expectations

Weekend reading

Some thoughts on inflation, followed by some good money reads.

For most of the past two years, it’s been wrong to be worried about inflation. It’s also been pretty lonely, as the world has piled into bonds and bought gold much more as catastrophe insurance than on fears of an inflationary spiral.

When I thought US government bonds looked absurdly overvalued in late 2008, for instance, I was right from the perspective of the poor value they offered compared to equities, but wrong to fear they’d soon suffer at the hands of inflation. In fact, deflation remained the mood music in the US throughout 2009 and most of 2010.

In late 2010, however, the musical chairs have been shifting. A strange alliance of hedge funds, ancient investors like Jim Slater, and money bloggers seemed the first to worry about inflation. As the year ends it now seems every newspaper, fund manager, and man in the street is an inflation hawk.

Perhaps the shift has come about because after years of overshooting its target, the Bank of England now says it fully expects inflation to stay above 3% throughout 2011, too.

Bank insiders can give all the interesting speeches they like about why this is consistent with policy [pdf] but the suspicion is growing that keeping interest rates at record lows in the face of inflation 50% above target isn’t just a matter of needs (i.e. raising the rate would only hurt the nascent recovery, and it wouldn’t reduce input costs) or even musts (i.e. we can’t afford to crash the housing market) but actually a deliberate action to solve these problems by inflating away the UK’s personal and private debts.

This is dangerous stuff. Normally a growing consensus in investing is a reason to consider doing or thinking the opposite, but inflation isn’t like that – the whole danger is that consensus expectations for higher inflation get embedded in the system, leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy as people take steps to prepare for it.

True, the Bank and others are surely right that with unemployment high and the debut of true austerity Britain a mere two weeks away, workers aren’t in a position to bid up wages en masse.

But these things can quickly change, and pressures are already showing up in domestic areas like rising rents (see this graph – at the bottom of the page).

Also, not worrying about rising inflation because the consequences lie down the line is a bit like not worrying about higher blood pressure because you’re too young to have a heart attack. The time to take action is when you first spot the symptoms, not when you’re 60 and short of breath.

[continue reading…]

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